The long offseason is over which means the 2024 NFL season is finally here!
Not only has the NFL returned, but so has the Road to 272 Bets! For the fifth year in a row, I'm going to bet on every single game this season. From Week 1 through Week 18, 272 games, 272 bets. It's a long journey that's not for the faint of heart, but it's one I love doing every year.
If you want to listen to the podcast version of my picks, you can check out the Bacon Bets Podcast wherever you get your podcasts and you can also watch the video version of it on YouTube. I also did a season-preview episode where I gave out my best bet for all 32 teams, which you can listen to here.
Keep in mind that I'm not a professional bettor. A pro bettor typically only bets on games they feel they have an edge, which certainly isn't what I'm doing here or else I wouldn't bet betting on every single game. With that being said, I use several strategies to help increase my chances of being profitable.
Through my first four seasons doing this, I've finished the year in the green in three of them:
2020: 130-119-7 (+5.79 units)2021: 151-120-1 (+25.47 units)2022: 128-135-9 (-12.32 units)2023: 140-129-3 (+3.96 units)Total: 549-503-20 (+22.9 units)
Before I take my first step on the 2024 edition of the Road to 272 Bets, I'm going to break down the six rules I have in place for myself:
I will place one bet on all 272 gamesAll 272 bets will be a one-unit flat betAll bets will be on a spread, total, or moneyline underdog (no moneyline favorites)Must place at least one moneyline underdog bet each weekAll bets will be placed at regulated sportsbooks in the state of New YorkAll bets will be tracked on my BetStamp account (@IainMacBets).
With all of that out of the way, it's time to begin. Let's dive into my best bet for every single Week 1 game, starting with the defending Super Bowl champs, the Kansas City Chiefs, taking on the Baltimore Ravens.
NFL Week 1 Best Bets for Every GameRavens vs. Chiefs Prediction
Listen, I understand nobody wants to bet an UNDER on the first NFL game of the season. It's the worst type of bet to cheer for and we all just want to enjoy the fact that football is back. With that being said, it's by far my favorite bet for this game so despite it not being a fun one, I'm going to ride with it.
People are quick to forget these two defenses ranked first in second last season in both opponent points per game and opponent points per game. I know there are electric playmakers on the offensive side of the ball for both teams, but we're talking about the top two scoring defenses in the league from a year ago.
The Ravens also finished the year second in opponent yards per play (4.6) while the Chiefs finished fifth (4.8). Finally, let's consider the fact red zone offense has a bit of a sore spot for Patrick Mahomes and company, scoring a touchdown on just 51.25% of red zone trips, the 14th lowest rate in the league.
The UNDER, in my opinion, is the right bet to place for opening night.
Packers vs. Eagles Prediction
Betting on Week 1 is always a tricky ask. Rosters have changed to at least some degree for every team and we don't fully know what to expect from anyone in the new season. That's why one of my favorite strategies to use in the opening slate of games is to fade narratives that have carried over from the end of the previous year.
For example, the Green Bay Packers were a darling of the league in the second half of the 2023 NFL season. They got hot down the stretch and blew out the Dallas Cowboys in a big upset on Wild Card Weekend. Meanwhile, the Eagles had one of the ugliest implosions in NFL history after a 10-1 start that was capped off be an embarrassing loss to the 9-8 Buccaneers. As a result, the Packers may be a bit overvalued in the betting market early in the 2024 campaign and the Eagles may be a bit undervalued.
The fact the Eagles cleaned house and added new coordinators, especially Kellen Moore on offense, along with bringing in new pieces to address the secondary, their biggest weakness on defense, I have faith in Philadelphia bouncing back.
I'll lay the points with the Eagles on Friday night in Brazil.
Steelers vs. Falcons Prediction
I've been high on the Falcons all offseason and low on the Steelers, so of course I'm going to back the Dirty Birds to win by more than a field goal.
Us Falcons fans are all too familiar with Arthur Smith and his offense and now that he's in Pittsburgh and paired with Russell Wilson of all quarterbacks, Steelers fans and bettors should prepare to cheer for the most frustrating offense in the NFL.
Let's also remember that Pittsburgh, despite making the playoffs, was 26th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play last season at -0.4, and did little to improve its roster in the offseason. The only factor that makes me nervous is Mike Tomlin, who has dragged this team to more wins than they've deserved the past handful of years.
Vikings vs. Giants Prediction
I'm not a Sam Darnold guy, so I'd feel better about this bet if J.J. McCarthy didn't get hurt and was named the Week 1 starter. With that being said, I expect the Giants to be one of the worst teams in the NFL this season and when it comes down to which team looks better on paper, it's still the Vikings by a wide margin.
The Giants ranked dead last in the league in Net Yards per Play last season at -1.1 and did little to improve their roster outside of overpaying for Brian Burnes and drafting Malik Nabers. They need to have a significant overhaul, including a getting a new quarterback, before I can have any faith in that team.
Then there's the Vikings, who have some interesting pieces on both side of the football including having arguably the best receiver in football in Justin Jefferson. I also like the offseason signing of Aaron Jones and if Kevin O'Connell can find a way to not ask too much of Darnold, the Vikings are going to be a tougher opponent than people expect.
Jaguars vs. Dolphins Prediction
I think the total in this game is a bit of an overreaction based on people's perceptions of these two teams. Yes, the Dolphins had one of the most explosive offenses in football last season, but both teams made significant improvements to their defenses.
The Jaguars re-signed key pieces in Joshua Hines-Allen and Foye Oluokun while also adding the likes of Arik Armstead and Darnell Savage. The Dolphins also added plenty of key pieces on that side of the football including Calais Campbell, Jordyn Brooks, Jordan Poyer, Kendall Fuller, and Shaq Barrett.
Both defenses are poised to take a step forward this year and surprise some people. For that reason, I think the total in this all-Florida showdown is a touch high.
Patriots vs. Bengals Prediction
Nobody hates the New England Patriots more than I do, but no matter how bad you think they're going to be this season, I simply can't get to the Bengals being a 9.5-point favorite in a Week 1 game. The Bengals have historically started slow each season in the Joe Burrow-era, and people forget they were just 5-5 last year when he suffered a season-ending injury.
As a whole, the Bengals were 28th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play last season at -0.8, well below the Patriots who ranked 17th at -0.1. A big reason was their defense which ranked dead last in opponent yards per play, giving up 6.0 yards per snap. They made some small improvements by signing Vonn Bell and Geno Stone at safety, but that's not enough for me to think they're good enough this year to be an almost double-digit favorite.
I'll take the points with New England.
Cardinals vs. Bills Prediction
It's hard to predict just how good the Buffalo Bills are going to be this season. There's been plenty of turnover on their roster, especially on defense, and their top receiver is Keon Coleman who will be making his first ever NFL start as a rookie.
I'm not ready to say the Bills won't meet expectations, but I hesitate to lay six points on this team until I get better idea of just how good (or bad) they'll be. The Cardinals defense is going to struggle, but their offense is going to be feisty with Kyler Murray, James Conner, Trey McBride, and Marvin Harrison Jr.
Give me the points with the road team in this one.
Texans vs. Colts Prediction
The market is higher on the Texans than I personally am. Don't forget the Colts, with Gardner Minshew as their quarterback, were a fourth down dropped pass away from beating the Texans and winning the AFC South last season.
Houston has become the flashy and sexy team heading into this season, but the Colts almost made some solid offseason moves. Now with Anthony Richardson back and healthy, this team can do enough to keep this game close at home.
Titans vs. Bears Prediction
Even if you think the Bears are going to have a good 2024 campaign, you have to admit there's a strong chance they're slow out the gates. Having a new, rookie quarterback is one thing, but having almost every important player on the offense being a new member of the team is a whole other thing. Caleb Williams, D'Andre Swift, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze were all either on other teams last season, or in college. It's going to take them a while to fully understand the Bears' scheme and learn to gel with each other.
Meanwhile, the Titans quietly had one of the best offseasons in football. They acquired L'Jarius Sneed from the Chiefs, signed Chidobe Awuzie, and added Lloyd Cushenberry and Calvin Ridley on offense. They may surprise some opponents this season and they're my favorite upset pick for the opening week of action.
Panthers vs. Saints Prediction
I feel the same way about both of these teams than I did when they were last on the field nine months ago. The Saints once again look like a solid team on paper, but can they deliver on the field? Meanwhile, the Panthers may just be the worst team in the NFL again in 2024.
Until I see significant improvement from Bryce Young, I can't justify betting on them as just four-point underdogs on the road. I'll take the Saints to win and cover and hope they can start living up to their potential.
Raiders vs. Chargers Prediction
I think both these teams are going to be much better defensively than offensively this season, especially at the start of the season.
The Raiders had a top 10 defense last season once Antonio Pierce took over, finishing seventh in opponent points per game (19.5). They further improved their defense by making one of the best offseason signings in the NFL, adding Christian Wilkins to their defensive line.
Then there are the Chargers, who were horrifically bad on defense last season, but if there's one area that Jim Harbaugh can make an immediate impact in it's their defense. The signing of Bud Dupree should also give them a small boost on that side of the football.
I'll take the UNDER in this AFC West showdown.
Broncos vs. Seahawks Prediction
I think it's time I officially declare myself a Bo Nix believer. I've been quiet about this for a long time but I have to make where I stand known before the season begins. I liked him before the draft and I like him even more after what I saw in the preseason. Now that the regular season is set to begin, I think the Broncos are going to be better than people think this season.
There are few teams the Seahawks should be favored by 5.5 points against, especially in an unknown Week 1. There are thee definition of an average team and did little to improve themselves this offseason.
I'll take the points with the Broncos.
Commanders vs. Buccaneers Prediction
When you think of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, you may think of strong defense, but that wasn't the cause for the Bucs last season. They ranked 22nd in opponent yards per play (5.4) and did little this offseason to improve on that side of the football. Then there are the Commanders, who were second-last in the NFL in opponent yards per play at 5.9.
In other words, this game is a matchup between two defenses who were in the bottom half of the NFL, or in the Commanders case in the bottom five, in several key defensive metrics, yet the total is set at just 43.5.
I have faith Baker Mayfield and his strong receiving core can get the ball moving offensively, so this bet will come down to the rookie, Jayden Daniels, doing the same for Washington. If he can, I think this total will get OVER.
Cowboys vs. Browns Prediction
My initial thought is the Cowboys is the easiest bet on the board in Week 1, but I simply can't look past the Browns' defensive numbers at home last season. They allowed just 3.7 yards per snap on their home field in 2023, the fewest in the NFL by 0.8. On the road, they allowed 2.1 more yards per snap at 5.8, which raises some major red flags to me. They also allowed 17.4 more points per game on the road.
What are the Browns doing at home where they have a historic defense but then turn into a bunch of pylons when they play on the road? Are they cheating? Do just get a good night sleep the night before? I don't know what's going on but I'm not betting on them at home until I see their home/road splits even out this season.
Rams vs. Lions Prediction
This is a rematch of last year's Wild Card matchup when the Detroit Lions won, but failed to cover the spread. I could see a similar outcome this time around.
I'm not as high on the Lions as some other people are this season. They were just 11th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play last season, behind the Rams who came in at eighth at +0.3. Los Angeles also made some notable improves on defense, including beefing up their secondary by signing Tre'Davious White and Darious Williams.
With the spread set at over a field goal, I'll take the points with Los Angeles.
Jets vs. 49ers Prediction
There's no team I'm lower on this season compared to the public consensus than the New York Jets. Sure, they have a good defense, but Aaron Rodgers is going to cause issues for this squad once again. Let's remember his last good season was three years ago and now the 40-year old is coming off a major Achilles injury. If he's able to stay healthy, I still don't think he's going to perform nearly as good as people think and the reports coming out of training camp have supported that motion.
Now, they have to take on arguably the most talented team in the NFL in the 49ers. San Francisco is going to be too much for New York to handle. I'll lay the points with the favorite on Monday Night Football.
